On October 22, 2026, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) released an analysis finding that average summer wholesale electricity prices in California's CAISO market fell 51% from summer 2021 to summer 2026, from $77.54 to $38.32 per megawatt-hour in inflation-adjusted dollars, as reported by Solar Power World. SEIA credits the growth of solar and battery storage and estimates the drop saved Californians about $2.5 billion from June through August 2026, per Solar Power World. The catch: utility bills kept rising anyway. For anyone weighing commercial solar and storage in Southern California, the gap between cheaper wholesale power and more expensive delivery is the story worth understanding this week.
What the SEIA analysis found
SEIA compared weighted average hourly wholesale prices for June through August 2021 with the same months in 2026, in inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars, according to Solar Power World's summary. Over that period, California solar generation rose 90% and electricity demand grew 2.5%, per the same Solar Power World report.
Batteries are the bigger change. California battery storage capacity grew nearly sevenfold over the five years, per Solar Power World, and average summer peak prices fell from $141.75 to $59.69 per megawatt-hour, as reported by TaiyangNews. SEIA says solar and storage increasingly replace expensive peaker plants, per the same TaiyangNews report.
Keep the source in mind. SEIA is the solar industry's trade association, and this is its own analysis of CAISO market data, not a state agency report. The direction of the trend matches what the state itself reports: the California Energy Commission said in August 2026 that batteries serving the state's grid reached 21,112 MW, up from less than 700 MW in 2019.
Why bills still rose
Wholesale energy is only one slice of a utility bill. In SEIA's California numbers, the generation portion of residential bills fell 10% while total residential bills rose 22%, which the analysis attributes to transmission and distribution costs, per Solar Power World. TaiyangNews reports the breakdown: transmission costs up 12%, distribution up 51%, and other costs, including wildfire-related expenses, up 90%.
The CPUC's own ratepayer advocate points to the same drivers. The Public Advocates Office's Q2 2026 electric rates report ranks wildfire mitigation and liability costs first, transmission and distribution investment second, and rooftop solar incentives third among the main reasons rates have climbed. The same report puts 2026 wildfire-related revenue requirements at about $2.69 billion for SCE and $675.7 million for SDG&E, roughly 14% of each utility's total revenue requirement, per the Q2 report.
The report's rate figures are residential averages, and it does not publish commercial rate schedules. Commercial tariffs are built differently, often with time-of-use periods and demand charges, so the useful step is to look at how your own bill splits between energy, delivery, and demand.
Storage keeps scaling, but equipment costs carry trade risk
The market is betting on more batteries, not fewer. BloombergNEF's latest outlook raised its U.S. energy storage forecast by 30% over the next decade compared with six months earlier, projecting 213.9 GW of cumulative U.S. deployments by 2030, as reported by Utility Dive on October 27. Part of the reason is that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act extended federal tax credit eligibility for storage through 2035, with a phase-down in the final years, while solar eligibility sunsets later this decade, per Utility Dive. (Our earlier post on the commercial solar tax credit 2027 deadline covers the solar side.)
Trade policy is the counterweight. BNEF puts the combined duty on stationary batteries imported from mainland China at 40.9%, and it also flags import restrictions on foreign-made power conversion equipment, according to Utility Dive. On the solar side, a Section 232 tariff of generally 15%, plus minimum import prices, on solar cells and modules applies to goods entered on or after December 4, 2026, according to a White & Case client alert, as we covered in our solar panel tariffs post. Equipment origin now matters as much as equipment price.
What this means for commercial solar and storage projects
Cheaper wholesale power does not lower the delivery side of a commercial bill, and that is the part on-site systems can address. Energy produced and used on site can offset the per-kWh energy and delivery charges on your bill, though demand charges and some nonbypassable charges may still apply. Storage is the tool aimed at the demand side. Here is how to put this week's news to work:
- Break your bill into parts. Pull 12 months of bills and, if available, interval data from SCE or SDG&E. Separate energy, delivery, and demand charges so any solar or storage proposal is measured against what you actually pay.
- Ask how storage would run. If your tariff has demand charges or time-of-use periods, ask any contractor to show when the battery charges, when it discharges, and which charges it targets.
- Ask where the equipment comes from. Request country of origin for modules, cells, battery packs, and inverters, and ask how the quote handles duties and any price changes before delivery.
- Line up tax credit timing. Solar and storage credits now run on different schedules. Confirm with your tax advisor which deadlines apply to your project before setting a construction start.
- Gather site basics early. Roof age and condition, available parking or yard space, your electrical single-line diagram, and planned load growth such as EV charging all shape system size and utility review.
How Burge Energy can help
Burge Energy designs and builds commercial solar, battery storage, and EV charging for new buildings and existing sites across Orange County and Southern California. We review your bills and load, size systems around how your site actually uses power, screen for available incentives, coordinate with SCE and SDG&E, and manage procurement with equipment origin in mind. Burge has been building in Southern California since 1977, and we are licensed for solar, storage, and EV charging work. Request an Energy Assessment to see where solar and storage fit your site, or learn more about Burge Energy and current incentives.
Sources
- ANALYSIS: Solar and Storage Growth Drives Down Summer Wholesale Electricity Prices by 42% in Texas and 51% in California, Solar Energy Industries Association (industry trade group), October 2026
- SEIA analysis: Solar is curbing consumer energy costs, Solar Power World (reporting), October 22, 2026
- Solar & Storage Cut Wholesale Electricity Prices In CAISO & ERCOT, TaiyangNews (reporting), October 23, 2026
- California Surpasses 21,000 Megawatts of Battery Resources Supporting the State's Electric Grid, California Energy Commission, August 7, 2026
- Q2 2026 Electric Rates Report, Public Advocates Office, California Public Utilities Commission, July 2026
- President Trump orders tariffs and price floors in polysilicon Section 232 action, White & Case (law firm client alert), August 10, 2026
- BNEF ups US energy storage deployment forecast by 30%, Utility Dive (reporting), October 27, 2026
Incentive eligibility depends on project specifics. Confirm with your tax advisor and the program administrator before relying on any figure here. This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Facts are current as of October 29, 2026; rules and markets can change.